Hypothesis: Islamic terrorists are losers

I want to explore a theory about Islamic terrorism and the “War on Terror”. Actually, it’s only a hypothesis since I can’t back it up with data, but its time to put it on paper to see what holes there are in it. Here goes:

Islamic terrorists and the militant Islamic movement, led by bin-Laden and al-Qaida, have already lost their war against the West. Moreover, they lost at the very moment of their greatest “triumph”. Ever since 8:46am on September 11th, 2001--when Atta flew into the North Tower--the ideological and political goals that the Islamists are pursuing began receding from them.

Before you scoff, allow me to amplify. I’m not suggesting that Al-Qaida and other Islamic extremists are defeated--yet. There are still many battles and much tragedy left to play out before this strange and awful war is over. It may last for decades. But what I’m hypothesizing here is that the radical Islamist vision--the defeat and withdrawal of the West, a new world-wide caliphate, entrenchment of so-called Islamic law--is getting less likely all the time. As a worldwide existential threat, radical Islam is receding not growing. Supporting evidence comes in two categories:

• Western reactions. The U.S.-led intervention in Afghanistan ended al-Qaida’s sanctuary. There is a vast dragnet for terrorist cells around the globe, and better domestic security measures. And the war in Iraq is essentially drawing hard-core jihadists into a killing ground. There is also widespread popular revulsion against the terrorists’ bloody methods. Starting with 9/11, I believe the West’s overall resolve to confront the threat has stiffened with each major outrage--Spain’s reaction to the Madrid bombings notwithstanding. Last week’s slaughter of Russian school children could well be a major psychological turning point.

• Islamic reactions. There are increased efforts by governments in Jordan, Pakistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and other Islamic countries to hunt down terrorists. Even in the Islamic world, the terrorists’ freedom to operate has been curtailed. More importantly, I detect a turn in Islamic popular opinion away from extremist violence. Bombings in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, which killed fellow believers, kidnappings and beheadings in Iraq, and again, the recent horrific acts of Chechen extremists, are being increasingly denounced by other Muslims (see www.freemuslims.org).

But let me be clear. I’m not convinced my hypothesis holds water, and there are many who expound an opposite view. They could be right. One of the main themes of the book “Imperial Hubris”, written by a still-serving CIA counter-terrorism officer, is that we still don’t comprehend the depth and breadth of the Islamic threat, and that the West will have to get far more ruthless to crush a growing, worldwide Islamic insurgency.

Similarly, many argue that the war in Iraq is only serving to inflame Islamic passions and aids the recruitment of more terrorists. The claim that Islamic terrorism can’t be confronted in “traditional, military terms” is, at its root, the same argument--i.e. our actions to counter Islamic terrorism have only made it grow more dangerous.

So, how to tell if my hypothesis has merit? Is the global threat from Islamic extremism receding because of reactions against its methods, or looming larger and more dangerous? That’s hard to measure, since we need to look at years or decades, and it’s almost impossible to quantify some of the “metrics”. But here’s a short list of some key questions to ask:

• Can al-Qaida or other extremists mount another major attack on U.S. soil?

• Will key Muslim countries (Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) fall to Islamic extremism?

• Are more terrorist leaders and cells being apprehended?

• How many new terrorist recruits are there? And how many decide to go home rather than be a martyr?

• Will “moderate” Islamic figures and organizations become more prominent? How many faithful Muslims oppose terrorism?

• Will elections in Afghanistan be meaningful or will the warlords take over again?

• Can a representative government take hold in Iraq?