Arafat hangs on, Palestinian factions vie for power in Gaza

The 74 year-old head of the PLO and chairman of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Yasser Arafat has a legendary ability to play opponents off against each other, dodging and weaving between adversaries while always bouncing back. This week it looks as if he’s been able to pull his proverbial chestnuts out of the fire once again, having reached at least the semblance of a compromise with the PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei. But 30 years of artful dodging may be coming to an end for Arafat.

Qurei threatened resignation on 17 July because Arafat’s refusal to grant him the real power--meaning power over the PA’s security forces--needed to control the increasingly chaotic situation on the streets of Gaza. Had Qurei resigned, a large part of the already-shaky PA government would have likely disbanded as well, and handed Arafat the lion’s share of blame for the collapse.

Arafat’s popularity and influence is not what it once was among Palestinians, and there are calls for him to step down. Ibrahim Hamami, an influential Palestinian writer, has published an open letter urging Arafat to pack his bags and leave the country. "For more than three decades you have treated us as if we were a flock of sheep," Hamami wrote. "You think that you are able to deal with the Palestinian people in the same way as you do with your corrupt cronies." Palestinian legislator Hanan Ashrawi has also called on Arafat to quit, saying it is time to end the "one-man show" in Ramallah.

Since September of 2002, Arafat has been literally besieged by Israeli forces in his Ramallah headquarters on the West Bank. While he still maintains contact with supporters and PA officials, he is physically isolated and to a great extent politically isolated. With two-thirds of Palestinians living below the poverty line, the PA is widely seen as corrupt and ineffectual.

In Gaza, the other aspect to that power vacuum is the Israeli push (led by Ariel Sharon) for an Israeli unilateral withdrawal from Gaza. If Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has his way, Israeli security forces and settlers will soon begin to pull out from the Gaza Strip, leaving Palestinians to sort things out for themselves.

Intramural Palestinian violence has flared in Gaza in recent weeks. Gun battles, kidnapping of PA officials, takeover and burning of PA police stations, and anti-PA protests illustrate that, just as in nature, politics abhors a vacuum. A bewildering array of rival (but sometimes overlapping) Palestinian factions are now vying for power in the Gaza territory:

• PA security forces. One of Arafat’s main devices for maintaining control has been to divide power among competing armed groups. The PA fields at least 10 separate security/police forces with overlapping jurisdiction. These include the Civil Police, Civil Defense, Coastal Police, Customs Police, Public Security, Preventative Security, University Security, Presidential Security, General Intelligence, and Military Intelligence. The main function of these forces is not to protect ordinary people, but to counterbalance or combat each other.

• Militia groups. In the absence of law and order, and with the corruption of the PA, there is a growing trend for private militia groups to take control of Palestinian neighborhoods and villages. These are often comprised of angry young men who take power into their own hands to fight Israeli forces, or PA security forces, or competing groups. Sometimes the loosely defined militias include members of PA security forces.

• Al Aqsa Brigades. This offshoot of Arafat’s secularist Fatah party is one of the deadliest Palestinian terrorist groups (although the degree to which he directly controls their operations has been hotly debated). Al-Aqsa is most infamous for suicide bombings and gun attacks against Israeli targets, but members have recently taken a public stand against corruption in the PA, and clashed with PA security forces.

• Hamas. Although keeping a low profile in the recent internecine struggles, the Islamic Resistance Movement (aka Hamas) is the most powerful Palestinian rival to the PA and to Arafat. Well-funded, well-organized and increasingly popular among desperate and destitute Palestinians, the deadly Islamic extremists of Hamas are the best-positioned to take political control in Gaza if Sharon executes his withdrawal, and if the PA falters further.