Make-or-break in Iraq: al-Sadr's Shiite uprising

While last week’s killings of U.S. contract security guards in Fallujah and the subsequent desecrations were shocking and riveted media attention, they didn’t represent a watershed event. On the other hand, the outbreak of a violent uprising among Iraqi Shiites is exactly that--a pivot-point in history. Yes, the uprising is occurring mostly among the radical followers of Muqtada al-Sadr. And yes, Grand Ayatollah Sistani and other senior clerics are calling for calm. But in this showdown, both sides are going for broke.

At center-stage in this new confrontation--which some are starting to call the insurgency's “second front”--is Muqtada al-Sadr, firebrand son of Mohammed al-Sadr who was a Grand Ayatollah and the most respected Shiite religious leader in Iraq until he was murdered by regime assassins in 1999. Because of his father’s martyrdom, the younger al-Sadr inherited a famous name and a following.

As the dictatorship was vanquished last year, al-Sadr launched ambitions to push to the forefront of the Shiite community, actively oppose the U.S.-led occupation, and establish the basis for Islamic revolution and Sharia law in Iraq. His principal power base is centered in the sprawling Shiite slum on the edge of Baghdad. Home to about 2 million, this district was renamed from “Saddam City” to “Sadr City” (to honor the elder al-Sadr) after U.S. troops liberated Baghdad last spring.

Perhaps the biggest factor in al-Sadr’s rise has been his militia group called the Mehdi Army. Estimates vary, but the Mehdi Army probably has around 1500 to 3000 armed members, with thousands more as supporters and sympathizers. They actually represent a small percentage of the 14 million Iraqi Shiites, but as an armed opposition group their impact has been much greater than their relative numbers.

It is misleading to call al-Sadr a “cleric”, since he has not formally completed his religious training, but he claims the mantle of a religious leader nonetheless. He is a bitter rival of his father’s successor, the current Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani who has a far larger following and has overall been a voice of moderation and restraint. In fact, over the last few months, al-Sistani’s influence and power have demonstrably grown while al-Sadr and his followers have been marginalized.

Since the summer, Paul Bremer, the Governing Council and Coalition forces have taken various low-profile measures to constrain al-Sadr and the radical Shiites but until recently have been reluctant to confront them head-on, preferring to keep shouldering them to the margins of the debate as they dealt with mainline Shiite leaders like Sistani.

But the softer strategy came to an end last week, when Mr. Bremer ordered that al-Sadr’s newspaper be shut down for inciting violence. Then on Sunday, U.S. troops arrested one of al-Sadr’s closest aides, for involvement in the murder of a rival Shiite cleric last year. It was this arrest that sparked the recent fighting and now a warrant has been unsealed for the arrest of al-Sadr himself. For the time being, al-Sadr and hundreds of militiamen are holed up in a mosque in the town of Kufa, vowing to fight to the death if Coalition forces come in after them.

If al-Sadr and his militiamen can successfully spread anti-occupation fervor into the greater Shiite community, Sistani and the more moderate clerics will be either pushed aside or see the need to support the uprising. Such a development would mean a quick unraveling of plans to turn over sovereignty to an Iraqi government on June 30, and quite likely the onset of countrywide civil war. This is the nightmare scenario that would most likely mean defeat for U.S. aims in Iraq.

But, if Coalition forces succeed in containing the violence to a few radicalized neighborhoods, isolating or arresting al-Sadr, and disbanding or disarming the Mehdi Army, then the most dangerous threat to a successful transition and long-term progress will have been confronted and defeated.

It’s all on the table now.

T.T.