Patience, persistence pay off big in Iraq & Libya

By Tad Trueblood

An article in last week’s Wall Street Journal tells the story of Lieutenant Angela Santana and Corporal Harold Engstrom, of the 104th Military Intelligence Battalion. Months ago, the two were assigned the task of building a chart that would help the 4th Infantry Division figure out who was hiding Saddam. With little relevant training or experience they started poring over tens of thousands of pages and thousands of names, many of which they couldn’t even pronounce.

To portray the information, they created a wall-chart depicting key figures and their relationships, status and last-known locations. Little by little, patterns emerged showing the extensive tribal and family ties surrounding the former Iraqi dictator. As more information became available from informants, captured documents, and detainees, the 46-by-42 inch chart became increasingly comprehensive and accurate.

Dubbed “Mongo Link”, their chart started highlighting key individuals, thus driving operations and raids. One particular suspect from the Tikrit area stood out as a high-priority target because of his connections to tribes, family and money. Known as “the source”, he escaped capture several times but was finally nabbed in Baghdad. The very next day, U.S. troops found Saddam, led to his hiding place by that key source identified on the Mongo Link chart.

Another dramatic payoff of intense behind-the-scenes effort came last Friday with the surprise announcement of Libya’s decision to abandon its WMD programs. Whether Ghaddafi was influenced more by diplomacy or watching his fellow dictator submit to a dental exam is now being debated. One can make a good case that the persistent work that led to Saddam’s capture also pushed Muammar Ghaddafi to make his decision. It is certainly true, however, that the breakthrough in Libya came after years of patient diplomatic pressure--pressure clearly amplified by the post-Iraq example of what “serious consequences” can mean for a rogue regime that persists in pursuing WMD and terror ties.

Moreover, like the mundane intel work that netted the big fish in Iraq, a discreet, multilateral program led by the U.S. known as the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) was a key part of that patient pressure applied to Libya. The PSI program to interdict illicit shipments of WMD-related materials or equipment was announced by President Bush back in the spring with little fanfare, and began operating in September. Joining the U.S. in the initiative are 10 other core countries; Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and the UK. Since the initial round of international conferences, more countries have also become involved.

The intent of the PSI is to stifle WMD proliferation by monitoring, inspecting--and seizing when necessary--shipments via land, air or sea. The program provides the legal and operational framework for taking action when suspect shipments are in the territory, waters or airspace of the participating countries--or are onboard ships or planes flagged by the participants. Already there have been several PSI seizures, according to a U.S. State Department official, although details have not been disclosed.

At least one of those seizures was related to Libyan WMD programs, according to recent reports, and measurably strengthened the hand of U.S. and British negotiators in their talks with Ghaddafi. U.S. officials are tightlipped about the whole operation, but have said the seizure helped persuade Libya to give up its WMD efforts.

Day by day, it is more evident what a watershed Saddam’s capture has been for the effort in Iraq--and not just in symbolic terms. The documents taken with him have led to the the wrapping up of several other insurgent cells. The months of tedious, painstaking work by Lt. Santana and Cpl. Engstrom, and no doubt rank upon rank of unnamed others involved in the hunt, have paid off in spades. Likewise, the quiet work of what must be hundreds--if not thousands--of diplomats, transportation officials, intelligence and military personnel involved in the PSI helped make a dramatic breakthrough in Libya.

Patience is indeed a virtue, as is persistence. But another P-word makes a big difference when it comes to convincing ruthless dictators. Patient diplomacy has very limited influence without the power to back it up, and the willingness to use that power if necessary.

T.T.

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